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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still